If League One Was Sunday League

Yesterday afternoon, I saw a tweet from @Berkshireblade asking whether or not anyone had created a table of what League One would look like if Portsmouth FC were to fold. Being a fan of all things statistical, I was intrigued to find out what the effects of Pompey 'folding', like a Sunday League side, would have on the rest of the table. After watching the Blades for the last 18 months in the third tier, this wasn't the first time I had likened it to the Sunday League, either.

As of 17/02/2013, the League One table looked like this:

Position	Team	P	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Bournemouth	33	57	42	15	58
2	Sheff Utd	32	47	29	18	57
3	Yeovil	32	55	40	15	57
4	Doncaster	31	44	29	15	57
5	Tranmere	32	47	31	16	56
6	Swindon	31	52	21	31	55
7	Brentford	31	45	32	13	54
8	Coventry	33	53	40	13	50
9	Walsall	33	46	48	-2	48
10	Leyton Orient	32	36	39	-3	46
11	Notts County	32	44	35	9	45
12	MK Dons	30	40	34	6	44
13	Crewe	31	38	40	-2	44
14	Stevenage	30	37	41	-4	43
15	Crawley	29	38	42	-4	42
16	Carlisle	32	40	55	-15	40
17	Preston	32	41	42	-1	38
18	Shrewsbury	33	36	40	-4	37
19	Scunthorpe	33	36	55	-19	35
20	Colchester	32	31	50	-19	32
21	Oldham	31	32	45	-13	30
22	Bury	32	31	48	-17	27
23	Hartlepool	32	28	53	-25	24
24	Portsmouth	33	34	57	-23	23

When looking through the results, some stuck out as having larger influences on position, namely Swindon's two matches which resulted in two wins and +6 GD for the Robins. However, due to Portsmouth's horrendous season to date, Swindon's position would not be the worst if Pompey were to leave the league now.

The table below shows what the table would look like if the Portsmouth results were removed from the system, again as of 17/02/2013.

Position	Team	P	F	A	GD	Pts
1	Tranmere	31	45	29	16	55
2	Sheff Utd	31	46	29	17	54
3	Yeovil	30	52	37	15	54
4	Doncaster	30	43	29	14	54
5	Bournemouth	31	54	41	13	54
6	Brentford	30	44	32	12	51
7	Swindon	29	45	20	25	49
8	Coventry	32	52	39	13	49
9	Crewe	30	38	38	0	44
10	MK Dons	29	38	32	6	43
11	Leyton Orient	31	33	37	-4	43
12	Walsall	31	42	47	-5	42
13	Stevenage	29	35	40	-5	40
14	Notts County	30	39	35	4	39
15	Crawley	27	36	38	-2	39
16	Preston	31	41	42	-1	37
17	Shrewsbury	32	35	37	-2	37
18	Carlisle	30	35	52	-17	36
19	Scunthorpe	31	33	52	-19	32
20	Colchester	30	26	46	-20	28
21	Oldham	30	31	45	-14	27
22	Bury	31	29	48	-19	24
23	Hartlepool	30	25	52	-27	20

Initially, eyes are drawn to the promotion and relegation places in the new table. In regards to the top, Tranmere move up four places, swapping positions with current league leaders Bournemouth while Brentford and Swindon also switch places. At the bottom, very little happens in terms of position for the bottom five, although Oldham and Bury slip slightly closer to safety.

The place where most moves occur, is in the middle of the table. To make comparisons easier between the two tables, I created a third that is colour coded and position changes noted.

Pos Change	Pos	Team	P	F	A	GD	Pts
+ 4	1	Tranmere	31	45	29	16	55
	2	Sheff Utd	31	46	29	17	54
	3	Yeovil	30	52	37	15	54
	4	Doncaster	30	43	29	14	54
- 4	5	Bournemouth	31	54	41	13	54
+ 1	6	Brentford	30	44	32	12	51
- 1	7	Swindon	29	45	20	25	49
	8	Coventry	32	52	39	13	49
+ 4	9	Crewe	30	38	38	0	44
+2	10	MK Dons	29	38	32	6	43
- 1	11	Leyton Orient	31	33	37	-4	43
- 3	12	Walsall	31	42	47	-5	42
+ 1	13	Stevenage	29	35	40	-5	40
- 3	14	Notts County	30	44	35	9	39
	15	Crawley	27	36	38	-2	39
+ 1	16	Preston	31	41	42	-1	37
+ 1	17	Shrewsbury	32	35	37	-2	37
- 2	18	Carlisle	30	35	55	-20	36
	19	Scunthorpe	31	33	52	-19	32
	20	Colchester	30	26	46	-20	28
	21	Oldham	30	31	45	-14	27
	22	Bury	31	29	48	-19	24
	23	Hartlepool	30	25	52	-27	20

Teams may have only moved one or two positions in most cases, however the league remains closely contested with only 12 points separating Crawley in 15th from the play-off places.

Personally, I would be incredibly surprised if the league would allow Portsmouth to leave the league mid-season given the problems it would cause them. Despite that and given the changes it has on the league at this stage of the season, I wonder what the overall effect would be at the end of the season. My thoughts would be that the changes wouldn't be as drastic as all 23 remaining teams would have played Portsmouth twice, however, teams like Crewe and Shrewsbury who have suffered one defeat apiece already at the hands of the south coast club could find positives (in this table only) if they were to lose against them for a second time.